Category Archives: Market Reports/Statistics

Strong Job Growth Continues

Metro JAX’ 5-county employment has added some 24,900 jobs in the 12 months’ ended in August 2016.  That’s a 3.8% growth ranks 3rd amongst its peers in the Southeast, just behind Savannah at 4.0% and still well behind Orlando at 4.4%, but well ahead of Tampa, Atlanta, Charlotte, Charleston, and Miami – and substantially better than the nation at about 2.0%.  According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, every employment category had gains in JAX except one (Information, which lost 400 jobs or down 4.3%); increases were widely dispersed, with the biggest gains being in Construction (+12.1%), Leisure/Hospitality (+5.9%) and Education and Health Services (+5.2%).

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A Bubble in The Making ?

Colliers International Research Department, led by Pete Culliney, Director of Research in New York, and Andrew Nelson, Chief Economist in San Francisco, have published their Mid-Year 2016 U.S. Capital Flows Research and Market Report for the national capital markets.  One of their many nuggets of information:

  • Repeat sales (of the same property/ies), the best indicator of price movements, are, overall for the four major food groups (CBD office, retail, multifamily, and industrial) up 12% over the prior peak of 2008 in the top six metro markets, admittedly a far cry from our local market. But…
  • The same property types outside the top six metro markets are still, on average, down 16% from the prior peak, but it is a mixed bag, with multi-family and CBD office higher than the prior peak while retail and industrial lag.  See the chart below, thanks to the Colliers International report.  If you would like a copy of it, please email us.Screen Shot 2016-09-13 at 4.12.41 PM.png

Transaction Flow in US Property Markets Down 16% But Pricing Firm

Colliers International’s outstanding research team has analyzed Real Capital Market trends for the first half of 2016 vs prior year’s and found:

  • Investment sale transactions nationwide were down 16% from the first half of 2015, with much of the decline in portfolio purchases.
  • Investment capital remains robust with volume up 15% from the 2014 level, which was the high watermark until last year.
  • Composition of transactions has changed significantly from the first half of 2015 to midway in 2016, with only multi-family (apartment) sales up (+9.7%) and the other major categories all down, led by hotels (-55%), Industrial (-31%), Retail (-20%), and Office (-12%).
  • Despite the slowdown, pricing remains firm, even rising, led by office product (+13.6%), then industrial (+7.6%) then hotels (+4.5%), while apartments (+2.7%)and shopping centers (-0.5%) lagged.  My own editorial – less volume, but higher prices; hmmm, makes one wonder about the quality of the product being traded or external influences such as a bottoming of interest rates…
  • Through 2017, the Colliers mothership expects prices to continue rising and investor interest to remain strong as transaction volumes regain traction as a reflection of the strength and stability of the U.S. economy and remarkably low interest rates, with a warning:  keep an eye on risks and avoid chasing yields as the growth cycle continues.

If you would like the entire article, please email me at scott.rogers at colliers.com.

2016 NE-FLA Mid-Year Investment Market Report

The 2016 Mid-Year Investment Market Report is here! The report covers investment activity that occurred in Northeast Florida during the first half of the year and includes all asset classes. The report is published semi-annually, and c0-authored by Ernie Saltmarsh and Scott Rogers, investment specialists with Colliers International Northeast Florida.

To view/download the report, click HERE

The Sale of “The Strand” Breaks Record

The 28-story, 295-unit Strand apartment tower, located on the Southbank recently traded for $64.6M, or, $219K per unit- a new record for local apartment/multifamily sales. The waterfront, luxury tower was built in 2007, and is the only high rise tower to be built in Jacksonville in recent years (most of the new apartment construction has been low to mid rise or “garden” style). The Stand was purchased by an investment firm based in Winter Park, FL. Other recent and notable sales included the sale of the Broadstone Beach House ($46M; $203K/unit) and Brooklyn Riverside ($58M; $187K/unit).

Derek Gilliam with the Jacksonville Business Journal covered the story.

Jacksonville- New #2 Forbes Ranking

Jacksonville was recently named by Forbes magazine as #2 on a list of the top “10 Cities Americans Are Moving To Right Now”. Reasons cited in the report include “friendlier climates, communities and costs of living”. Below is the full lineup.

  1. Tampa, FL ($230,000 med. home price / 4.4% unemployment rate)
  2. Jacksonville, FL ($272,400 med. home price / 4.4% unemployment rate)
  3. Charlotte, NC ($257,500 med. home price / 5.1% unemployment rate)
  4. San Antonio, TX ($275,000 med. home price / 3.7% unemployment rate)
  5. Austin, TX ($399,000 med. home price / 3.1% unemployment rate)
  6. Las Vegas, NV ($260,000 med. home price / 6% unemployment rate)
  7. Orlando, FL ($262,400 med. home price / 4.3% unemployment rate)
  8. Nashville, TN ($315,000 med. home price / 3.2% unemployment rate)
  9. Raleigh, NC ($297,200 med. home price / 4.6% unemployment rate)
  10. Portland, OR ($416,300 med. home price / 4.6% unemployment rate)

In a similar list, Forbes ranked the “10 States People Are Fleeing”, which included: New Jersey, New York, Illinois, Connecticut, Ohio, Kansas, Massachusetts, West Virginia, Mississippi and Maryland.

From Forbes.com; Karsten Strauss

NEFLA Housing Market Posts Strong Numbers

According to a recent Jacksonville Business Journal article, “The housing market in Northeast Florida posted strong numbers in February with nearly 1,800 closed sales, 2,425 pending sales and an increase in year-over-year average price.”

Derek Gilliam with the Jacksonville Business Journal covered the story

Year End 2015 Investment Market Report

The Year-End 2015 Investment Market Report covers commercial real estate investment activity that occurred in the last 2 quarters of 2015 in the Northeast Florida market. As you will see in the report, Colliers International was involved in many of the sales, and was the most active brokerage firm in town in the investment arena during the 2nd half of 2015, based on total number of transactions. Colliers was particularly active in the shopping center and single tenant net leased sectors, selling a Publix ground lease at a record 4.74% cap rate, as well as representing both buyer and seller in the largest shopping center sale of 2015 in an off-market transaction (Island Walk – Fernandina Beach).

$855M of investment sales occurred in the second half of the year, resulting in a total of $1.7B for the entire year. Note that these figures only include assets that traded that were generating income at the time of the sale, and do not represent total commercial real estate activity. The report includes apartment/multifamily, hospitality, single tenant net leased assets, shopping centers, office and industrial properties. Deals that were excluded from the report include owner-occupied sales and vacant land/buildings.

View/Download the report HERE

Positive Economic Indicators for the First Coast

First Coast & Florida jobless figures declined in November: Jobless rates on the First Coast (Duval, Clay, St. Johns, Nassau and Baker) fell to 4.7 in November, down from 4.9 in October (before seasonal adjustments). Taking into account season adjustments, those figures equate to 4.8 in NOV, down from 5.1 in OCT. FL jobless rates fell from 5.1 in OCT, to 4.8 in NOV before seasonal adjustments. After seasonal adjustment, this equates to a NOV rate of 5, down from 5.2 in OCT.

Drew Dixon with the Florida Times Union covered the story.

Single-family home permits highest since ’07: According to the Northeast Florida Builders Association, 6,725 single family home permits were issued in Duval, St. Johns, Nassau & Clay counties during  2015. This figure equates to about 650 more than in 2014, and twice what was pulled during the “collapse” in ’09-’11, and significantly lower than the all time high of over 17,500 during the 2005 “boom”.

Roger Bull with the Florida Times Union covered the story.

Atlantic & Vilano Beach Named as Top 10 Under the Radar FL Beach Towns: Two local beach communities, Atlantic Beach and Vilano Beach, were both recently made a top 10 list of “under-the-radar” beach towns, as decided by travel report by Fodor, a well respected travel publisher and website. The list did not have any numerical order, and other top 10 towns included Cedar Key, Pass A Grill Beach, Deerfield Beach, Vero Beach, Ponce Inlet, Anna Maria Island, Santa Rosa Beach and Gasparilla Island.

Drew Dixon with the Florida Times Union covered the story.

Frontier Airlines plans New Flights from St. Augustine: Frontier has just announced it would be adding two new non-stop flights out of St. Augustine’s Northeast Florida Regional Airport, one to Philadelphia and into Chicago. The flights to Chicago start April 14th, with flights on Tuesdays, Thursdays and Sundays. The flights to Philadelphia begin the next day, April 15th, and will operate on Mondays, Wednesdays, Fridays and Saturdays.

Stuart Korfhage with the St. Augustine Record covered the story.

Jacksonville’s GDP up 5% Y-O-Y

According to the annual U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis report, Jacksonville’s GDP is up 5% Y-O-Y, making it’s $65 billion economy 49th in the Nation.

James Cannon with the Jacksonville Business Journal covered the announcement.